Artificial Intelligence as the New Security Dilemma: A Neorealist Analysis

Abstract

This paper evaluates the use of AI in military applications in autonomous weapons, intelligence surveillance reconnaissance, cyber warfare, and command-control systems, including its contribution to power distribution. The conflict between Russia and Ukraine is an illustration of asymmetric AI approaches with Russia using mass-produced AI-powered drones to maintain a continuous aerial campaign and Ukraine deploying precision AI-controlled strikes and this is the way the new technologies are changing the modern war.The modern AI geopolitics is dominatedby U.S.-China rivalry, and structural concerns support competition instead of collaboration. Russia engages in asymmetric policies that are combining AI and the nuclear doctrine, and the secondary powers are building regional capacity, increasing risks ofproliferation. The entire structure of anarchic is a limiting factor in the successful governance of AI-there is a problem of verification (as well as enforcement) and relative gains (that do not allow full arms control). Even though there is still limited cooperation in existential risks, core competitive dynamics prevail, which requires policies to balance strategic hedging and selective cooperation.