The financial crisis, economic development and business management in Pakistan: An evidence through time-series data analysis in Pakistan
Keywords:
Financial crisis, Development, Causality, Interest rate, EconomyAbstract
The aim of this research work is to analyze the causal linkage among Pakistan's economic development and the three main financial crisis indicators—interest rates, inflation, and the amount of foreign debt. Additionally, this analysis emphasizes how consistently financial crisis indicators and economic growth. The analysis makes use of sample size covering data from 2000 to 2024. The convergence of equilibrium for series utilized in the work is examined using Johansen's co-integration test. The findings show that the three elements of Pakistan's financial crisis and economic growth have overall causal relationship. The business, economic and each financial crisis indicator taken into consideration in this study have a bidirectional causal relationship, according to estimations based on the pair-wise Granger Causality test. Whereas, the management of economy is determined on the economic and business parameters as analyzed on data which provides a sometimes unidirectional or bidirectional indication for solution of economic crisis and way for economic development
Downloads
References
Al-Awad, M., & Harb, N. (2005). Financial development and economic growth in the Middle East. Applied Financial Economics, 15(15), 1041-1051. https://doi.org/10.1080/09603100500120639
Arif, A., & Arif, U. (2023). Institutional Approach to the Budget Deficit: An Empirical Analysis. SAGE Open, 13(2), 1-9. https://doi.org/10.1177/21582440231171297
Ayana, I. D., Demissie, W. M., & Sore, A. G. (2023). Effect of government revenue on economic growth of sub-Saharan Africa: Does institutional quality matter? Plos one, 18(11).
Ali, H., & Bhutta, Z. M. (2018). Financial development and economic growth nexus in Pakistan: An analysis of bound testing approach. Sukkur IBA Journal of Economics and Finance, 2(1), 10-35.
Atif, R. M., Jadoon, A., Zaman, K., Ismail, A., & Seemab, R. (2010). Trade liberalization, financial development and economic growth: Evidence from Pakistan (1980–2009). Journal of International Academic Research, 10(2), 30-37.
Becker, M. C., & Knudsen, T. (2002). Schumpeter 1911: farsighted visions on economic development. American Journal of Economics and Sociology, 61(2), 387-403. https://doi.org/10.1111/1536-7150.00166
Beckmann, G., Wingberg, J., & Hasund, A. (1983). Computer-assisted cephalometry using the Bergen technic. Fortschritte der Kieferorthopadie, 44(5), 359-369. https://doi.org/10.1007/bf01994542
Botev, J., Égert, B., & Jawadi, F. (2019). The nonlinear relationship between economic growth and financial development: Evidence from developing, emerging and advanced economies. International Economics, 160(12), 3-13. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.inteco.2019.06.004
Brownbridge, M., & Kirkpatrick, C. (2000). Financial regulation in developing countries. The Journal of Development Studies, 37(1), 1-24. https://doi.org/10.1080/713600056
Buffie, E. F. (1984). Financial repression, the new structuralists, and stabilization policy in semiindustrialized economies. Journal of Development Economics, 14(3), 305-322. https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-3878(84)90061-0
Cazachevici, A., Havranek, T., & Horvath, R. (2020). Remittances and economic growth: A metaanalysis. World Development, 134(10), 105021. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2020.105021
Chaudhury, S., Nanda, N., & Tyagi, B. (2020). Impact of FDI on economic growth in South Asia: does nature of FDI matters? Review of Market Integration, 12(1-2), 51-69. https://doi.org/10.1177/0974929220969679
Choong, C.-K., & Chan, S.-G. (2011). Financial development and economic growth: A review. African Journal of Business Management, 5(6), 2017-2027.
Chowdhury, E. K., Dhar, B. K., & Gazi, M. A. I. (2023). Impact of remittance on economic progress: evidence from low-income Asian Frontier countries. Journal of the Knowledge Economy, 14(1), 382-407.
De, G. J., & Guidotti, P. (1995). Financial development and economic growth. World Development, 23(3), 433-448. https://doi.org/10.1016/0305-750X(94)00132-I
Demirgüç-Kunt, A., & Levine, R. (2001). Financial structure and economic growth: Perspectives and lessons. Doi: https://doi.org/10.7551/mitpress/3001.003.0003
Dritsakis, N., & Adamopoulos, A. (2004). Financial development and economic growth in Greece: An empirical investigation with Granger causality analysis. International Economic Journal, 18(4), 547-559. https://doi.org/10.1080/1016873042000299981
Ehsan, S., Nazir, M. S., Nurunnabi, M., Raza Khan, Q., Tahir, S., & Ahmed, I. (2018). A multimethod approach to assess and measure corporate social responsibility disclosure and practices in a developing economy. Sustainability, 10(8), 2955. https://doi.org/10.3390/su10082955
Ekanayake, E., & Thaver, R. (2021). The nexus between financial development and economic growth: Panel data evidence from developing countries. Journal of Risk and Financial Management, 14(10), 489. https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm14100489
Fishkin, J., Keniston, K., & McKinnon, C. (1973). Moral reasoning and political ideology. Journal of Personality and social Psychology, 27(1), 109-119. https://doi.org/10.1037/h0034434
Haider, M. A., Raza, Q., Jameel, S., & Pervaiz, K. (2019). A comparative study of operational efficiency of Pakistani and Malaysian islamic banks: Data envelopment analysis approach. Asian Economic and Financial Review, 9(5), 559.
Hunjra, A. I., Arunachalam, M., & Hanif, M. (2021). Financial development-economic growth nexus: theoretical underpinnings, empirical evidence, and critical reflections. Economic Growth and Financial Development. Effects of Capital Flight in Emerging Economies, 155- 178. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-79003-5_13
Hussain, F., & Ejaz, M. (2022). Effectiveness of the Exchange Rate Channel in Monetary Policy Transmission in Pakistan. The Pakistan Development Review, 61(1), 45-67. https://www.jstor.org/stable/27262030
Hussain, I., Hayat, U., Alam, M.S., & Khan, U. (2023). A dynamic analysis of the twin-deficit hypothesis: The case of a developing country. Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, 31, 25-52.
Ismal, R. (2011). Assessing economic growth and fiscal policy in Indonesia. Journal of Economics and Business, 14(1), 53-71.
Islam, M. S. (2022). Do personal remittances influence economic growth in South Asia? A panel analysis. Review of Development Economics, 26(1), 242-258. https://doi.org/10.1111/rode.12842
Jadoon, I. K., & Hasnu, S. A. F. (2009). Collaboration dichotomies in knowledge management success. Journal of Knowledge Management Practice, 10(4).
Jafri, M. A. H., Liu, H., Usman, A., & Khan, Q. R. (2021). Re-evaluating the asymmetric conventional energy and renewable energy consumption-economic growth nexus for Pakistan. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 28(3), 37435-37447.
Jalil, A., & Ma, Y. (2008). Financial development and economic growth: Time series evidence from Pakistan and China. Journal of economic cooperation, 29(2), 29-68.
Karlsson, H., & Mansson, K. (2015). Revisiting the nexus of the financial Development and economic growth–Wavelet approach with a focus on Asian economies. Paper presented at the Research Network Debate, Swedish Entrepreneurship Forum, Stockholm.
Khan, A., Ahmed, M., & Bibi, S. (2019). Financial development and economic growth nexus for Pakistan: a revisit using maximum entropy bootstrap approach. Empirical Economics, 57, 1157-1169.
Khan, M. S., & Senhadji, A. S. (2000). FT IMF Working Paper.
Khan, Q. R., Xinshu, M., Qamri, G. M., & Nawaz, A. (2023). From COVID to conflict: Understanding the deriving forces of environment and implications for natural resources. Resources Policy, 83(6).
Khattak, S. I., & Khan, W. A. (2023). Chinese Overseas Foreign Direct Investment–International Foreign Portfolio Investment–Financial Sector Development Nexus in the Belt and Road Initiative Economies: A Regional Analysis Based on Third-Generation Techniques. Journal of the Knowledge Economy 15, 3014-3038.
King, R. G., & Levine, R. (1993). Financial intermediation and economic development. Capital markets and financial intermediation, 156-189
Levine, R. (1997). Financial development and economic growth: views and agenda. Journal of economic literature, 35(2), 688-726.
Lipovina-Božović, M., & SMOLOVIĆ, J. C. (2016). Evidence on Economic Growth and Financial Development in Montenegro. Management (18544223), 11(4).
Lucas Jr, R. E. (1988). On the mechanics of economic development. Journal of monetary economics, 22(1), 3-42. https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-3932(88)90168-7
Lupu, D., & Nuţă, F. M. (2023). The impact of public education spending on economic growth in Central and Eastern Europe. An ARDL approach with structural break. Economic research Ekonomska istraživanja, 36(1), 1261-1278. doi=10.1080/1331677X.2022.2086147
Mahembe, E., & Odhiambo, N. (2014). Foreign direct investment and economic growth: A theoretical framework. Journal of Governance and Regulation, 3(2).
Masoud, N., & Hardaker, G. (2012). The impact of financial development on economic growth: Empirical analysis of emerging market countries. Studies in economics and finance, 29(3), 148-173. https://doi.org/10.1108/10867371211246830
Mavrotas, G., & Son, S.-I. (2008). Financial development and economic growth: further evidence from panel data models. In Domestic Resource Mobilization and Financial Development 39-69: Springer.
Ndou, E., Gumata, N., & Moletsane, T. (2024). Exchange rate and GDP nexus in South Africa: the disconnect after the 2008 global recession. SN Business & Economics, 4(2), 2-27
Olorogun, L. A., Salami, M. A., & Bekun, F. V. (2022). Revisiting the Nexus between FDI, financial development and economic growth: Empirical evidence from Nigeria. Journal of Public Affairs, 22(3), 1-10. https://doi.org/10.1002/pa.2561
Omran, M., & Bolbol, A. (2003). Foreign direct investment, financial development, and economic growth: evidence from the Arab countries. Review of Middle East Economics and Finance, 1(3), 37-55. https://doi.org/10.2202/1475-3693.1014
Onifade, S. T., Çevik, S., Erdoğan, S., Asongu, S., & Bekun, F. V. (2020). An empirical retrospect of the impacts of government expenditures on economic growth: new evidence from the Nigerian economy. Journal of Economic Structures, 9(1), 6, 1-13.
Poku, K., Opoku, E., & Agyeiwaa Ennin, P. (2022). The influence of government expenditure on economic growth in Ghana: An Ardl approach. Cogent Economics & Finance, 10(1), 1-16. https://doi.org/10.1080/23322039.2022.2160036
Qamri, G. M., Sheng, B., Adeel-Farooq, R. M., & Alam, G. M. (2022). The criticality of FDI in Environmental Degradation through financial development and economic growth: Implications for promoting the green sector. Resources Policy, 78(9), 102765. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resourpol.2022.102765
Rahman, A., Khan, M. A., & Charfeddine, L. (2020). Financial development–economic growth nexus in Pakistan: new evidence from the Markov switching model. Cogent Economics & Finance, 8(1), 1716446. https://doi.org/10.1080/23322039.2020.1716446
Ram, R. (1999). Financial development and economic growth: Additional evidence. The Journal of Development Studies, 35(4), 164-174. https://doi.org/10.1080/00220389908422585
Robinson, J. (1952). The model of an expanding economy. The Economic Journal, 62(245), 42-53. https://doi.org/10.2307/2227172
Rosalia, M.-R. G. (2013). Impact of Financial Development on Economic growth.
Sehrawat, M., & Giri, A. (2016). Panel data analysis of financial development, economic growth and rural-urban income inequality: Evidence from SAARC countries. International Journal of Social Economics, 43(10), 998-1015. https://doi.org/10.1108/IJSE-10-2014-0211
Sertoglu, K., Ugural, S., & Bekun, F. V. (2017). The contribution of agricultural sector on economic growth of Nigeria. International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, 7(1), 547-552.
Sghaier, I. M., & Abida, Z. (2013). Foreign direct investment, financial development and economic growth: Empirical evidence from North African countries. Journal of International and Global Economic Studies, 6(1), 1-13.
Shah, A. M., Yan, X., Khan, S., Khurrum, W., & Khan, Q. R. (2021). A multi-modal approach to predict the strength of doctor–patient relationships. Multimedia Tools and Applications, 80(8), 23207-23240.
Shahbaz, M., & Mafizur Rahman, M. (2014). Exports, financial development and economic growth in Pakistan. International Journal of Development Issues, 13(2), 155-170. https://doi.org/10.1108/IJDI-09-2013-0065
Shahbaz, M., Shahbaz Shabbir, M., & Sabihuddin Butt, M. (2013). Effect of financial development on agricultural growth in Pakistan: New extensions from bounds test to level relationships and Granger causality tests. International Journal of Social Economics, 40(8), 707-728. https://doi.org/10.1108/IJSE-01-2012-0002
Shan, J. (2005). Does financial development ‘lead ‘economic growth? A vector auto-regression appraisal. Applied Economics, 37(12), 1353-1367. https://doi.org/10.1080/00036840500118762
Shan, J. Z., Morris, A. G., & Sun, F. (2001). Financial development and economic growth: An egg‐ and‐chicken problem? Review of international Economics, 9(3), 443-454. https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-9396.00291
Shapoval, A. (2022). The Contribution of Large Recurrent Sunspot Groups to Solar Activity: Empirical Evidence. Universe, 8(3), 180. 10.3390/universe8030180
Song, C.-Q., Chang, C.-P., & Gong, Q. (2021). Economic growth, corruption, and financial development: Global evidence. Economic Modelling, 94, 822-830. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2020.02.022
Sutradhar, S. R. (2020). The impact of remittances on economic growth in Bangladesh, India, Pakistan and Sri Lanka. International Journal of Economic Policy Studies, 14(1), 275-295.
Syah, A., & Pratama, K. (2022). The Role of Economic Factors on the Economic Growth: Evidence from the Indonesian Economy. Cuadernos de Economía, 45(129), 40-47. https://doi.org/10.32826/cude.v1i129.80
Tariq, R., Khan, M. A., & Rahman, A. (2020). How does financial development impact economic growth in Pakistan? New evidence from threshold model. The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business, 7(8), 161-173. https://doi.org/10.13106/jafeb.2020.vol7.no8.161
Wang, X., Xu, Z., Qin, Y., & Skare, M. (2022). Foreign direct investment and economic growth: a dynamic study of measurement approaches and results. Economic research-Ekonomska istraživanja, 35(1), 1011-1034.
Yusuf, M., Malarvizhi, C., Mazumder, M. N. H., & Su, Z. (2014). Corruption, poverty, and economic growth relationship in the Nigerian economy. The Journal of Developing Areas, 95-107.
Zahoor, Z., Khan, I., & Hou, F. (2022). Clean energy investment and financial development as determinants of environment and sustainable economic growth: evidence from China. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 29(9), 1-11.
Zhang, D., Mohsin, M., Rasheed, A. K., Chang, Y., & Taghizadeh-Hesary, F. (2021). Public spending and green economic growth in BRI region: mediating role of green finance. Energy Policy, 153, 112256.




























