Great Power Rivalry and the Militarization of Space: Strategic Competition in the 21st Century

Abstract

Anti-satellite (ASAT) weaponry and their associated controversies have transformed the militarization of space into a foundational component of global rivalries in the twenty-first century. This paper examines the ASAT systems and the space military doctrines and related policies of the United States, China, India, and Russia-perhaps the world's leading challengers in this arena. Using the international relations theory of realism and the empirical methodology focusing on documented ASAT tests, this research explains the complexity of the deterrence problem, the effects on space debris, and the collision of arms control with the ASAT tests and the development of potential ASAT technologies. This analysis argues that the space militarization process manifests an increasing threat to the global order and the environment of space. By analyzing the national doctrines as well as the global order in a multipolar condition, this research identifies the governance gaps and outlines a set of policies, including technical resilience, confidence-building, tailored arms control, and the preservation of legitimate security interests to reduce the risk of escalating threats, to construct governance models for the identified gaps.