Neoclassical realist analysis of U.S. Indo-Pacific policy and its implications for China

Abstract

The Indo-Pacific has become a major key point of rivalry among the great powers, specifically the US and China. This rivalry is due to power distribution in the Indo-Pacific, in addition to the rise of China and its rapid naval modernization, which is giving impetus to Counter-U.S. strategies. There is a sharp contrast between the strategies of both sides. From an American perspective, the U.S. Indo-Pacific policy aims to maintain an equilibrium by regional alignments and strengthening alliances, emphasizing minilateralism, and ensuring strategic presence. But on the contrary, China has a divergent external security environment, which also significantly influences its strategic calculations and policy choices. While literature has extensively explored the development of the Indo-Pacific concept, China's counter-response, and alliance-building in the region, there is a dearth of a single explanatory framework. This paper endeavors to fill the vacuum by applying a neoclassical realist perspective to analyze how systemic pressures from the U.S. Indo-Pacific strategy are permeated through domestic variables to shape China's strategic responses. This study integrated both the systemic and domestic factors to answer critical questions about how external strategic pressures are translated into state actions, particularly regarding China's response to the U.S. Indo-Pacific strategy. The analysis unfolds that China's response is because of strategic hedging rather than robust confrontation, a combination of power competition and internal filtering.